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@VirtuFinancial: Valor #HFT Morghulis

If you read Part 1 to this post (from December 15, 2016) then you know that at least as of the end of 2015, financial reports from HFT bellwether Virtu Financial illustrated strong and even increasing profitability. Our surprise from these impressive figures came from the countervailing hypothesis that HFT was already well past its prime (given the evidence of prop shop closings and consolidations over the past 5 years or so). Apparently, Virtu didn’t get that memo. However, upon closer inspection of the most recent quarterly reports – which as of now yields details over 11 quarters starting in calendar Q1 2014 (March) and ending in calendar Q3 2016 (September) – even this bellwether may have seen its best days. Exhibit 1 (below) is one perspective of what this recent turn of fortune looks like: Some translation: After spiking in Q4-2014 and peaking in Q1-2015 at an annualized (adjusted net trading) revenue per employee (RPE) of over $4.1 million, trading revenue as of the end of Q3-2016 has returned to somewhat less [...]

By |2020-08-17T07:14:09-04:00January 12th, 2017|For Subscribers|
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Investors Beware: #Robo-Blindness Ahead

I'm on the fence when it comes to the "robo-advisory" craze. Clearly, given the gush of venture money and subsequent marketing buzz behind automated trading and investing methods for the masses, lots of very smart folks think that "robots" managing your money (on an highly automated or assisted basis) are here to stay. Note that in 2016 Betterment and Personal Capital bagged rounds of $100 million and $75 million, respectively. Here's the first shoe: Quantitative methods for retail investors were always inevitable once a sufficient level of maturity in the underlying mechanisms had been achieved. In an earlier generation of quantitative trading strategy development (ie - late 1990's), we used say, "You can either fish or sell bait." Meaning, simply, that you can either use your trading signals on a proprietary basis or sell your modeling output for a fee. For those who were good at it, the profitability in the beginning was - or at least could be - far too juicy to sell for a fixed fee. And, frankly, these methods were in a far too formative [...]

By |2020-08-17T07:14:10-04:00January 10th, 2017|For Subscribers|
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@VirtuFinancial: Let the good #HFT times roll!

It's March 25, 2016 - and I crack open the newly minted 10-K from our friends at Virtu Financial. The equivalent of that new car smell wafts northward from its fresh digital pages. The anticipation is palpable. With years of intense focus and vigorous debate on the mechanics of #HFT - and the jealous wonderment surrounding its stratospheric profitability - it is both rare and puzzling that the public should get a real, data-driven look inside to support or debunk the mythology of this ultra-secretive corner of the global financial landscape. Searching within this fresh set of data, I update our model - and the output creates one of those WTF cognitive dissonance moments. After all, isn't the heyday of HFT over?! Haven't numerous high-speed shops consolidated or folded? As a refresher, the vid below is what we were saying back in July 2013 (while at Tabb Group): Hello from 2013! Struggling is not what's going on here. By the looks of things at Virtu - at least as of the [...]

By |2020-08-17T07:14:10-04:00December 15th, 2016|For Subscribers|
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Top Hedge Funds: AUM per Employee = Trading Strategy?

We have been playing with some new equations; looking to see if anything interesting can be learned from benchmarking assets per employee across various firms. (It turns out that adding this analytic to our suite of other "per employee" metrics yields significant insights.) In the figure below, we took the top 10 hedge funds ranked by assets under management (AUM) and then re-ranked that list by AUM per employee. We also tossed in Virtu Financial and KCG (Getco) for giggles - and to test the extremes. Notice anything interesting? Based on what you might know about these trading companies, how would you label the X-axis? Here's some additional data to consider: The correlation between assets and headcount is not perfect by any stretch, but it is signal-worthy. Also, this trick works best on mature, ongoing firms whose operations and business are relatively consistent. Headcount level doesn't seem to matter. Albeit at the extremes of tradings firms, Virtu Financial generated nearly US$800 million in revenue (2015) with 148 employees - so [...]

By |2020-08-17T07:14:10-04:00December 14th, 2016|For Subscribers|
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