It's only happened twice since the peak, recorded nearly 6 years ago (at the end of Q3 2011): Alphacution's bulge bank headcount index has recorded a rare uptick, as of the end of Q2 2017 (see Exhibit, below). Now, of course, it may be too soon to sound the trumpets that a major turn has been made for headcount in the global banking sector. The moves - in either direction - are still small. Although, who knows? Maybe the expectation of regulatory rollbacks has got bank hiring managers feeling more exuberant of late. Or, maybe - as we suggested in our prior post - that process automation, particularly among quant shops, actually requires more people is something that applies more broadly in financial services (given the push to implement more AI). One thing is for sure, most of our bulge banking tracking sample (7 of 9) is bigger in terms of headcount than they were more than 10 years ago. Only UBS and Citi are smaller, but that has been [...]
Brain drain - in this case meaning the loss of valuable human capital - is one of those silent malignancies in an organization that is difficult to measure, and the impacts from which are typically not realized until the damage has already been done. With the global banking sector - and its constituent business segments, from retail banking to wealth management to capital markets - still in the midst of unprecedented and persistent transformation, the risk of ongoing losses of intellectual capital and corporate memory that leave via the elevator each day is still quite high - or, at least, it is perceived to be so. (The knock-on effects to the supply chain are notable here, as well.) It is largely for this reason that we have been monitoring and measuring various headcount-dependent metrics in the financial services ecosystem: Interesting and telling on a per-company basis, fascinating and illuminating of broader trends on a composite basis. The former being a weaker intelligence signal, the latter being a much stronger signal. So, here's [...]
Well, it would have been the Top 10 investment banks, but @Barclays doesn't publish quarterly headcount for some reason. Maybe they will help us fix that. Anyway, for the Top 9 investment banks, total headcount is down 13% from its peak in Q3 2011. And, with at least 2 of the 9 - @Deutsche Bank and @CreditSuisse - reporting significant headcount reductions for the road ahead as part their year-end 2016 financial releases and 2017 guidance, it's not much of a stretch for us to predict that the Wonkavator is highly likely to travel further back in time than year-end 2006 (see below). I just want to let this picture dangle for a bit without much comment. We will be revisiting and significantly expanding this analysis in the weeks and months ahead as we roll into the development of our 2nd Annual Global Bank Technology Spending study. Stay tuned...
If today's announcement by Deutsche Bank CEO, John Cryan, is to be believed, total group headcount is set to be reduced by 9,000 souls. Note that these reductions will come from a year-end 2016 flock of 99,744 (which, by the way, is still within 2.3% of the all-time high of 102,062 set at year-end 2010). We decided to look into our DB model to take a quick read of the expected pace of these reductions. Here's the setup: Over the 40 quarters from Q1-2007 through Q4-2016, 21 of those quarters represented total headcount reductions. Furthermore: The maximum headcount reduction in a down quarter was -2,256 FTEs (full-time equivalents); The average headcount change over the 40 quarters (not counting an acquisition in Q4-2010) was 880 FTEs; and, The average of the 21 quarters with headcount reductions was -668 FTEs Separate from an outright sale of a business segment (which is being contemplated here in the form of its DB Asset Management arm), organic shrinkage is painful and can take more time than originally anticipated. At [...]
In this FOURTH of a five-part video blog series Jim Jockle, CMO of Numerix sits down with Paul Rowady, Director of Research at Alphacution to discuss the recent FinTech Revolution. They discuss how firms are gearing themselves towards a digital culture, and how companies are working to distinguish themselves in this new age. The five videos cover the following: Part 1: Paralysis by Analysis: Preparation & Analyzation for Digital Disruption Part 2: IT Outsourcing and Transformation Part 3: Revolutionizing FinTech: Looking into the World of Data Automation Part 4: Technological Implications of Cultural Transformation Part 5: Digital Noise in the FinTech Space Jim Jockle (Host): So let me go to your research. You know you suggested a little bit, there’s the differentiators in terms of maximizing our opportunity and then there’s a congested middle-of-the-pack. Transitioning, so yes you had the Fords, who arguably have done very well in that or a transitionary period of time but you also saw the Hondas and Toyotas come out of nowhere and things of [...]
Understanding FinTech #Transformation: In this FOURTH of a five part video blog series Jim Jockle, CMO of Numerix sits down with Paul Rowady, Director of Research at Alphacution to discuss the concept of #Transformation. Jim and Paul provide their perspectives on the latest examples of transformation they’re observing in the financial services industry specifically around the cross section of IT spending trends, software vs hardware investment, human capital expense, IT infrastructure, data management and risk analytics innovations. The five segments cover: Defining #Transformation within Financial Services Quantifying #Transformation The Cost of #Transformation #Transformation and TCO: Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Deutsche Bank Case Study Investing in #Transformation: What’s the ROI? Video 4: #Transformation and TCO: Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Deutsche Bank Case Study Jim Jockle (Host): Hi, welcome back to Numerix video blog, I'm your host Jim Jockle. Joining me today, Paul Rowady Director of Research at Alphacution. Hey Paul. Paul Rowady (Guest): Thanks, Jim. Good to be here. Jockle: Continuing our conversation on quantifying transformation. So we’ve talked about the [...]
Part I of this post can be found here Here’s the central question: After one year, does Hewlett-Packard Enterprise deliver tech savings for Deutsche Bank? (And, is this a harbinger or a template for other large banks and market participants?) With the Annual Report and other financial disclosures released on March 11, 2016, Deutsche Bank (DB) has completed its 2015 reporting. Our original curiosity here was to determine if a technology outsourcing alliance between Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and DB – which was announced about a year ago in late February 2015 – has resulted in any observable impact on the technology spending patterns at DB. With a fully updated model in hand, the results provide some strong signals – and some additional curiosities. Here’s what we find: First, estimated year-over-year spending on hardware and infrastructure – a component of TCO where HPE is expected to have the most impact – is down $405 million 2015 vs. 2014, which represents an 8% improvement during the period – and is about [...]
Squeezing more performance from less costly technology footprints is a perpetual imperative for all businesses in the digital age. Unlike the latest – and ongoing – turbulence on the surface of the global markets seas, something slower, somewhat mysterious and much more evolutionary is going on down in the deep. One might argue that the largest global banks head the list of those businesses that are among the most in need of “more-for-less” transformation. As a result, monitoring the impact of events such as the Deutsche Bank – Hewlett Packard Enterprises information technology outsourcing (ITO) deal is of such importance. Alphacution has developed a detailed and quantitative case study to illustrate the bank- and business division-specific - impacts of this arrangement as well as the implications for improved monitoring of the transformations of other large entities in the financial services industry (FSI) ecosystem. First, some quick background: On February 24, 2015, Deutsche Bank (DB) and Hewlett-Packard (since re-configured as Hewlett Packard Enterprises – or HPE) announced a 10-year,”multibillion dollar” agreement [...]