Prediction markets - like Kalshi and Polymarket - are enjoying a beautiful day in the sun with all the new deal flow and attention from NYSE, CME, Robinhood and others. Now, the National Hockey League (NHL) is eagerly stepping up to be the first major US sports rights holder to drape itself in logo-embossed gambling. Alphacution shows the mechanics and real objectives of this sudden flurry of activity...
In this Feed post, Alphacution connects some very unusual dots to frame the recent announcements by ICE/NYSE, CME Group, and others to become aligned with betting and event contract markets. Sound business? Or, something else?
Alphacution presents evidence for how dominant prop firms are starving smaller competitors out of business - a sign that we may be approaching some kind of peak. One of the highlights of this post is a rare, long-term chart of the rise of the top proprietary traders - including Citadel Securities, Jane Street Group, and Susquehanna International Group (SIG) - and the decline of banks in the US equity option market...
Robinhood disrupts its way into membership in the S&P 500 index. Alphacution offers some charts - and thoughts - on the significance of this market milestone, including a new "torque" factor...
Bloomberg's recent exposé on legendary Amsterdam-based derivatives trader, Optiver, is heavy on gloss and sabre rattling - against market leaders like Citadel Securities, Jane Street, and Susquehanna International Group - and light on strategic and competitive analysis. In Part I of this Feed post, Alphacution begins to fill that gap with data, context, and perspective...
Retail engagement in US equity options is directly having an outsized impact on US capital markets and indirectly on global market sentiment. Alphacution presents its latest charts on the topic, including clues related to the growth of international retail trading in the US equity market...
From a Jane Street perspective, Alphacution asks a different question to showcase the recent acquisition of Morgan Stanley's option market making unit by Citadel Securities...
In this 118-page, 145-exhibit case study – “US Equity Market Macrostructure Evolution: The Temple of Financial Fantasy” – Alphacution presents its case for how the adoption of technology by a subset of leading proprietary trading firms have leveraged the regulatory framework over the past 20 years to permanently alter and distort the US equity market to the point of a farcical rivalry between two separate and distinct “stock markets” that are animated by two competing realities. The first reality is represented by a mob of self-directed retail traders with a lot of time and very few assets, and the second reality is represented by an increasingly complacent institutional asset management industry with nearly all the assets. Today, institutional asset managers are trapped by their own complacency – and the clock is ticking… To tell this incredible story, Alphacution will present its updated framework, new modeling, and never-seen-before measurements for the evolving symbiosis between risk managers, risk strategies, and asset flows within the US equity market ecosystem over a span of the past 12 years, beginning late 2013…
In Alphacution's upcoming case study, "US Equity Market Macrostructure Evolution: The Temple of Financial Fantasies," we expose patterns discovered by modeling the entire 13F dataset over a period of nearly 12 years. It turns out that there are significant concentrations of reporting managers at the intersection of certain metrics that we've mined from that dataset. This suggests that there are significant concentrations of similar strategies. Alphacution presents a teaser for its findings...
Oddly enough, April 2025 was a month of significant achievements for the 47-year old brokerage, Interactive Brokers. Alphacution presents its review of the key metrics...
